Weekly Market Commentary

Gains Follow Largest Sell-Off For the S&P 500

Posted on September 17, 2024

The Major Markets saw gains follow the largest sell-off for the S&P 500 in over a year.  

As evidenced by the nearly 6 percentage point gain in the Nasdaq, the tech centric segments of Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary drove some of the largest gains in the recovery. In particular, NVIDA, which recorded a weekly gain of almost 16%, has had a noteworthy influence on the larger markets. The weekly gains added to the total year to date return of 140.5% and stands as the best performing stock within the S&P 500 so far this year. 

To put this into perspective, due to the over six percentage point weight that this stock now holds within the index, about a quarter of the entire S&P 500’s index gains have been attributed to this one stock as a sense of FOMO has swept the market. 

In economic news, last week saw the final CPI release ahead of this week’s September FOMC Meeting. This was important because while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had already effectively telegraphed a cut to the Fed Funds rate for this next meeting, the CPI results were closely watched to determine what sway the report would have on a potential 25 or 50 basis point cut to the rate. The headline reading of 0.2% month over month was in-line with expectations while the Core CPI number was slightly elevated at 0.3% compared to the 0.2% expected. 

 

Major Markets

YTD as of 09/13/2024  
  Nasdaq  
  Dow Jones Industrial  
  S&P 500  
  MSCI World  
  MSCI EM  
  Russell 2000  
  Bar US Agg Bnd  
     

S&P Sectors

  YTD as of 09/13/2024
 
  Comm. Services  
  Cons. Discretionary  
  Cons. Staples  
  Energy  
  Financials  
  Health Care  
  Industrials  
  Info. Technology  
  Materials  
  Real Estate  
  Utilities  
     
    Agent/Broker Dealer Use Only  

This result, along with overall market sentiment, helped to tighten the odds of a 50-basis point cut to a 50/50 split according to the CME group’s Fed Watch Tool. This week’s rate cut would be the first reduction since the current tightening cycle began. 

The yield curve continued to lower further week over week. The Major Bond Indices were awash in green in response as the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index added a half percent. 



The S&P 500® Index is a capitalization index of 500 stock-designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of stock representing all major industries. https://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average® (The Dow®), is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. https://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/dow-jones-industrial-average

The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. Today the NASDAQ Composite includes over 2,500 companies, more than most other stock market indexes. Because it is so broad-based, the Composite is one of the most widely followed and quoted major market indexes. https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/Index/Overview/COMP

The MSCI World Index, which is part of The Modern Index Strategy, is a broad global equity benchmark that represents large and mid-cap equity performance across 23 developed markets countries. It covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country and MSCI World benchmark does not offer exposure to emerging markets.

The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index is designed to represent the performance of large- and mid-cap securities in 24 Emerging Markets countries of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. As of December 2017, it had more than 830 constituents and covered approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. https://www.msci.com/

The S&P GSCI Crude Oil index provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark for investment performance in the crude oil market. https://us.spindices.com/indices

Companies in the S&P 500 Sector Indices are classified based on the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®). https://us.spindices.com/indices

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