Q1 Closes Red: Mixed Signals and Tariff Tensions

Q1 Closes Red: Mixed Signals and Tariff Tensions

Last week, the stock market saw more selling, with all five Major Markets dropping. In fact, 9 out of the 14 weeks this year have ended in losses, leading to the first quarterly loss since the third quarter of 2023.

The S&P 500 briefly managed to break back above its 200-day moving average at the start of the week. However, the selling pressure forced the index back below this technical threshold Wednesday.

There was a lot of economic data last week, and it painted a mixed picture. The week started with the S&P Flash PMI results. The Services PMI was better than expected, but the Manufacturing PMI missed estimates.

On Tuesday, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose higher than expected, but consumer confidence fell short. The Conference Board reported that

“Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022” The report further reported that consumers’ confidence in employment reached a 12-year low with inflation fears driving sentiment.

Major Markets		YTD as of 03/28/2025
	Nasdaq
	Dow Jones Industrial
	S&P 500
	MSCI World
	MSCI EM
	Russell 2000
	Bar US Agg Bnd

S&P Sectors

YTD as of 03/28/2025

Comm. Services

Cons. Discretionary

Cons. Staples

Energy

Financials

Health Care

Industrials

Info. Technology

Materials

Real Estate

Utilities

Agent/Broker Dealer Use Only

On Thursday, the second GDP revision showed a slight increase to 2.4% from 2.3%. Then, on Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report came out, showing a 2.5% increase year-over-year in the headline number, and a 2.8% increase in the core version. These results added to growing worries about inflation.

This week marks the start of a new quarter, but also brings attention to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2nd. The president has promised to announce new tariffs on trade partners, but has kept details under wraps. The world will find out more during a Rose Garden press event this week.

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-white-house-says-trumps-signing-of-liberation-day-tariffs-will-be-first-rose-garden-event

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